A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
